Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the fighter that is ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound rankings on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. If, for any reason, there is no fighter ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at this market’s check-time, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ilia Topuria | 45% YES | 56% NO |
| Dricus Du Plessis | 24% YES | 76% NO |
| Joshua Van | 42% YES | 59% NO |
| Fighter E | — | |
| Merab Dvalishvili | 7% YES | 93% NO |
| Alexandre Pantoja | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| Arman Tsarukyan | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Fighter A | — | |
The UFC's pound-for-pound rankings represent the organisation's assessment of fighter quality independent of weight class, updated regularly following major events. The ranking at 31 December 2026 will determine this market's resolution, with the current order book on Polymarket pricing the incumbent or favourite at 45% implied probability, reflecting meaningful uncertainty about who will hold the top spot across the next two years.
Historical precedent suggests pound-for-pound rankings shift when dominant fighters retire, suffer significant losses, or when rising challengers compile impressive winning streaks. Jon Jones, Demetrious Johnson, and Kamaru Usman have held the top ranking in recent years; transitions typically occur following title fights or high-profile victories rather than gradual consensus shifts. The 45% probability indicates traders assess roughly even odds between the current leader retaining the ranking and an alternative fighter claiming it by year-end 2026.
Traders should monitor title fight outcomes across multiple weight classes, particularly at welterweight, middleweight, and lightweight where competitive depth remains high. The UFC's ranking methodology, whilst not formally published, responds to recent performance and strength of schedule. Key catalysts include championship bouts scheduled through 2026, injury announcements affecting top contenders, and any retirements among current elite fighters. Recent reporting from MMA Junkie and ESPN MMA tracks ranking movements following each numbered event, providing real-time signals for how the organisation weights recent victories against historical dominance.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will be UFC Pound-For-Pound #1 at the end of 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$11K in lifetime turnover and $943 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for ufc contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: