Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the official closing price for Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) on May 6 is higher than the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If the final session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| $370 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $380 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $390 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| $400 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| $410 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Tesla's closing price on 6 May 2026 will determine this market's outcome. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC on that date, using the official closing price from Nasdaq. Should a trading halt or system disruption prevent publication of an official close, the last valid on-exchange trade price during the regular session will serve as the reference point instead.
The 100% implied probability reflected on Polymarket's order book suggests traders are pricing in an extremely high likelihood that TSLA will close above the specified threshold. Historical precedent shows that single-stock price targets set far in advance tend to reflect either wide confidence intervals or minimal liquidity depth at extreme probability levels. Tesla's volatility profile—characterised by substantial intraday and session-to-session swings—means that even modest price targets can carry execution risk. The current crowd probability should be read as a function of both the specific strike level and the depth of available orders on Polymarket's book at the extremes.
Traders monitoring this market should track Tesla's quarterly earnings announcements, macroeconomic data affecting automotive demand, and any material corporate actions between now and May 2026. Recent regulatory developments regarding EV subsidies and tariff policies have influenced Tesla's trading patterns. The company's capital allocation decisions, production guidance updates, and competitive positioning in key markets will shape directional momentum into the settlement date. Liquidity conditions and order-book depth on Polymarket itself may shift materially as the date approaches, particularly if broader market volatility increases or if Tesla-specific news events occur.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Tesla (TSLA) closes above ___ on May 6?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tsla contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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