Trade: Federal Gas Tax Suspended by 2026?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: On May 11, 2026, Trump proposed suspending the federal gas tax. This market will resolve to "Yes" if legislation that would, at least temporarily, suspend the federal excise tax on gasoline is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Qualifying legislation may include joint resolutions and must pass both the House and the Senate, and must be signed by the President, become law without signature while Congress remains in session, or become law through veto override. Presidential pocket vetoes that expire will not qualify.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $15K
- Total Volume
- $4K
- 24h Volume
- $4K
- Open Interest
- $1K
Market outcomes
| November 2 | 34% YES | 66% NO |
| June 30 | 23% YES | 78% NO |
Market context
In May 2026, former President Trump proposed suspending the federal excise tax on gasoline, a levy currently set at 18.4 cents per gallon. The proposal would require passage through both chambers of Congress and presidential signature to become law by the end of 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 34% implied probability of this occurring, suggesting traders assess meaningful but uncertain odds of legislative movement within the remaining timeframe.
Historical precedent offers limited direct comparison. Congress last suspended the federal gas tax temporarily in 2022, when bipartisan support emerged amid inflation concerns, though that required only a short-term measure. Broader tax suspension efforts typically face resistance from fiscal hawks and infrastructure funding advocates, as the gas tax funds the Highway Trust Fund. The current Republican-controlled Congress may prove more receptive to Trump's proposal than previous iterations, yet the compressed timeline and competing legislative priorities create structural headwinds.
Traders should monitor congressional scheduling and committee activity, particularly within the House Ways and Means Committee, which handles tax legislation. Any formal bill introduction or committee markup would signal genuine legislative intent. Statements from Senate leadership regarding floor time allocation prove critical, as the upper chamber's schedule determines feasibility. Economic data on fuel prices and inflation may shift political appetite for the measure. The December 2026 deadline leaves roughly six months for legislative action, a window that narrows considerably given typical congressional calendars and competing priorities heading into the 2026 midterm period.
Wikipedia Context
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Fuel tax
A fuel tax, also known as a gas tax or a fuel duty, is an excise tax imposed on the sale of fuel. In most countries, the fuel tax is imposed on fuels which are intended for transportation. Fuel tax receipts are often dedicated or hypothecated to transportation projects, in which case the fuel tax can be considered a user fee. In other countries, the fuel tax
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Fuel taxes in the United StatesThe United States federal excise tax on gasoline is 18.4 cents per gallon and 24.4 cents per gallon for diesel fuel. Proceeds from the tax partly support the Highway Trust Fund. The federal tax was last raised on October 1, 1993, and is not indexed to inflation, which increased 122% from October 1993 until November 2025. On average, as of April 2019, state a
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Federal government of the United StatesThe federal government of the United States is the national government of the United States.
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Federal ReserveThe Federal Reserve System is the central banking system of the United States. It was created on December 23, 1913, with the enactment of the Federal Reserve Act, after a series of financial panics led to the desire for central control of the monetary system in order to alleviate financial crises. Although an instrument of the U.S. government, the Federal Re
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Federal Gas Tax Suspended by 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$4K in lifetime turnover and $15K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for trump contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $4K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Federal Gas Tax Suspended by 2026?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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