Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine officially agrees to a peace framework to end the Russo–Ukrainian war that the United States has formally endorsed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war, provided that the United States formally endorses it and Ukraine officially agrees to it through one of the following: 1. A written or signed framework-related instrument issued or signed by Ukraine that affirms agreement with the U.S.-endorsed framework. 2.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| December 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| January 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| February 28 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| June 30 | 22% YES | 78% NO |
The question centres on whether Ukraine will formally accept a US-endorsed ceasefire framework by year-end 2025. This requires both explicit American backing and official Ukrainian agreement to a publicly announced peace plan or roadmap. The settlement window extends to June 2026, allowing time for resolution clarity after the December deadline passes.
The 0% implied probability reflects the substantial structural obstacles to agreement within the timeframe. Previous ceasefire attempts in this conflict—including the Istanbul talks of spring 2022 and various diplomatic overtures since—have foundered on irreconcilable positions regarding territorial integrity, NATO membership, and security guarantees. Ukraine's negotiating position has historically hardened rather than softened as the war has progressed, whilst Russian demands have remained expansive. The incoming Trump administration's stated interest in rapid settlement differs markedly from prior US policy, but translating presidential intent into a framework both parties accept remains a distinct challenge from either side simply agreeing to talks.
Traders should monitor several near-term catalysts. Trump's inauguration on 20 January 2025 will clarify whether his administration moves quickly toward a formal peace proposal. Any public framework announcement—whether from Washington, Kyiv, or multilateral channels—would constitute a triggering event. Zelenskyy's domestic political constraints matter considerably; Ukrainian public opinion and parliament have consistently rejected territorial concessions, creating friction between any US-brokered deal and domestic ratification. Recent reporting from Reuters and other outlets suggests the Trump team is exploring backchannels with Moscow, though no formal framework has yet materialised. The compressed timeline means meaningful movement would need to occur within months rather than quarters.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.5M in lifetime turnover and $15K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for trump zelenskyy contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $390 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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