Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Xi Jinping, the Chinese government, or any authorized representative of the Chinese government announces a reduction, removal, or suspension of any existing tariffs on the United States between market creation and May 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only tariff reductions specifically announced in relation to the United States, goods from the United States, or a specific set of countries including the United States will qualify. For example, an announced reduction in global tariffs will not count toward this market's resolution.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Participation in Iran Negotiations | 15% YES | 85% NO |
| Boeing Aircraft Purchase | 80% YES | 21% NO |
| U.S. Soybean Purchase | 64% YES | 37% NO |
| U.S. Oil Purchase | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| Rare Earth Export Relief | 32% YES | 69% NO |
A potential summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping before May 2026 could produce Chinese tariff concessions on American goods. The market settles affirmatively only if China's government formally announces a reduction, removal, or suspension of existing tariffs specifically targeting the United States or American products—broad global tariff cuts would not qualify. The 14% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects scepticism that such an announcement materialises within the settlement window, despite ongoing trade tensions and periodic diplomatic engagement between Washington and Beijing.
Historical precedent offers mixed signals for interpreting this probability. During Trump's first term (2017–2021), tariff negotiations with China produced the Phase One trade deal in January 2020, which included Chinese commitments to purchase American agricultural and manufactured goods, though formal tariff reductions were limited. Subsequent administrations maintained most Trump-era tariffs whilst pursuing selective negotiations. The current probability discount suggests traders assess a low likelihood of formal Chinese tariff announcements, possibly reflecting Beijing's historical reluctance to announce unilateral concessions and the structural rigidity of trade positions on both sides.
Key catalysts include any official summit announcement, statements from either government's trade representatives, and broader geopolitical developments affecting US–China relations. Recent reporting on trade policy shifts and diplomatic channels will signal shifting expectations. The May 2026 deadline provides roughly 18 months for such an announcement, though the specificity required—tariffs explicitly linked to the United States rather than multilateral reductions—narrows the resolution criteria considerably. Traders should monitor official government communications and statements from authorised representatives closely.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Trump-Xi Summit: What will China announce by May 22?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $6K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for trump xi summit contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 22 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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