Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the existence of kamikaze dolphins in the US military is confirmed by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Kamikaze dolphins” refers to the use of dolphins as weapons through the attachment of explosive devices to dolphins for the purpose of attacking ships or other targets. The use of dolphins for mine detection, surveillance, retrieval, harbor defense or other military purposes not involving the attachment of explosive devices will not qualify.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| US Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31? | 2% YES | 98% NO |
The US military has operated a Marine Mammal Program since the 1960s, primarily utilising dolphins for mine detection, harbour defence, and object retrieval in coastal operations. The question of whether dolphins have been weaponised with explosive devices—a practice sometimes termed "kamikaze dolphins"—remains unconfirmed in official disclosures, though persistent claims have circulated in military history forums and declassified document discussions. The market settles affirmatively only upon confirmed public disclosure of such weaponisation, not speculation or historical rumour.
Historical precedent suggests scepticism is warranted. The Soviet Union reportedly experimented with weaponised marine mammals during the Cold War, and some accounts reference similar programmes elsewhere, yet the US programme's documented focus has remained on detection and retrieval tasks. No credible mainstream reporting or declassified government documentation has substantiated active kamikaze dolphin deployment. The 2% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects this evidentiary gap—traders are pricing in a low but non-negligible tail risk of disclosure within the 18-month window.
Catalysts for resolution would centre on congressional testimony, Freedom of Information Act releases, or official Department of Defence statements confirming weaponised dolphin programmes. The Trump administration's relationship with military transparency and potential declassification reviews could theoretically surface historical records, though no scheduled announcements currently signal imminent disclosure. Traders should monitor defence appropriations hearings and any marine mammal programme audits, though the absence of recent credible reporting suggests the probability reflects genuine underlying uncertainty rather than emerging evidence.
Kazuhiko Usami is a Japanese international rugby union player who plays in the lock position. He currently plays for the Sunwolves in Super Rugby and Canon Eagles in Japan's domestic Top League.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "US Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$46 in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for trump iran contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $46 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 2%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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