Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the first individual Donald Trump announces as his pick to be United States Secretary of Labor. An announcement from Donald Trump or the Trump administration stating their intent to nominate a specific individual for United States Secretary of Labor will suffice to resolve this market, regardless of whether a formal nomination actually occurs. Qualifying announcements must explicitly present the relevant individual as the nominee or future nominee for United States Secretary of Labor. Announcements of acting or interim appointments, or announcements which merely reveal potential candidates, will not qualify.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Patrick Pizzella | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| None in 2026 | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Person H | — | |
| Person L | — | |
| Person P | — | |
| Person R | — | |
| Person T | — | |
| Other | — | |
Donald Trump will need to announce his choice for Secretary of Labor during his second term, a position responsible for labour policy, workplace safety, and employment programmes. The current 2% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial uncertainty about which candidate Trump will select from a field that includes former officials, business figures, and political allies. The settlement criteria require an explicit announcement of intent to nominate—an acting or interim appointment would not trigger resolution—meaning the market remains open through the end of 2026.
Historical precedent suggests Trump's cabinet selections often come as surprises to markets. His first-term Labour Secretary, Alexander Acosta, was not widely anticipated before announcement. The current low probability may reflect the market's difficulty in identifying a clear frontrunner among potential candidates, or genuine uncertainty about whether Trump will announce this particular position before the settlement deadline. The position has traditionally attracted candidates with backgrounds in union relations, business management, or regulatory affairs, though Trump's selections have sometimes defied conventional expectations.
Traders should monitor Trump's public statements and media reports about cabinet formation, particularly any announcements made during the transition period or early months of his term. Recent reporting on potential cabinet picks has been fragmented across multiple candidates, with no clear consensus emerging. The announcement could occur at any point before year-end 2026, making this a longer-duration market where information asymmetries and timing become significant factors in pricing.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will Trump announce as next Secretary of Labor?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$42K in lifetime turnover and $36K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for trump cabinet contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $553 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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