Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| J.D. Vance | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Scott Bessent | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Pam Bondi | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Brooke Rollins | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Lori Chavez-DeRemer | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Scott Turner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Chris Wright | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Doug Collins | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Trump's second administration began in January 2025 with a full complement of cabinet secretaries and senior officials. This market tracks which member of that cabinet will be the first to announce a departure or face removal, with resolution triggered immediately upon announcement rather than the effective date of departure. The 0% implied probability currently reflected on Polymarket's order book suggests traders are pricing in either high confidence in cabinet stability through 2026 or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful positions at higher price levels.
Historical precedent offers mixed signals for cabinet longevity. Trump's first term (2017–2021) saw notably high turnover, with roughly half of cabinet positions experiencing changes, though most departures occurred in the latter half of his presidency. By contrast, second-term administrations often feature greater stability as personnel are already vetted and aligned with the president's approach. The median tenure for Trump's first-term cabinet members who departed was approximately two years, suggesting that departures before end-2026 would represent faster-than-average attrition.
Traders monitoring this market should track public statements regarding policy disagreements, particularly on tariffs, immigration enforcement, and foreign policy where cabinet members have historically shown divergence. Personnel changes often follow significant legislative or regulatory setbacks, budget disputes, or public criticism from the president. Recent reporting on internal administration tensions and the president's management style will inform expectations around friction points likely to trigger departures.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3.2M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for trump cabinet contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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