Resolution criteria on PolyGram: What price will Bitcoin hit on May 11?
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ↑ 88,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↑ 85,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↓ 79,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↓ 78,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↓ 77,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| ↓ 76,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↓ 75,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ↓ 74,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Bitcoin's price action on 11 May will be determined by intraday volatility and broader market sentiment across that specific trading window. The settlement window closes on 12 May at 04:00 UTC, capturing roughly 24 hours of price discovery across major spot and futures exchanges. Current order book depth on Polymarket shows minimal liquidity at the extremes, with the 0% implied probability reflecting either very tight clustering around a narrow price range or genuine uncertainty about which price level the market will test.
Historical precedent suggests single-day Bitcoin moves of 5–8% occur roughly once per quarter under normal conditions, though volatility clusters around macroeconomic data releases and regulatory announcements. The current probability structure implies traders are pricing in a scenario where Bitcoin remains confined to a relatively tight band on that date, absent unexpected shocks. This contrasts with periods following Federal Reserve decisions or major geopolitical events, when intraday ranges routinely exceed 10%.
Catalysts to monitor include any scheduled economic data releases in the US or Europe on 11 May, statements from major central banks, and developments in cryptocurrency regulation. Bitcoin's correlation with equity futures and Treasury yields has strengthened since 2023, making broader market sentiment a primary driver. Traders should check the economic calendar for that specific date and monitor overnight Asian trading, which often sets tone for European and US sessions. Polymarket's order book will tighten as the date approaches, revealing where consensus price expectations actually cluster.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "What price will Bitcoin hit on May 11?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$153K in lifetime turnover and $223K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for today contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $153K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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