Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Marcel Zielinski and Max Schoenhaus in the ITF Men Troisdorf, originally scheduled for May 30, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marcel Zielinski' if Marcel Zielinski advances against Max Schoenhaus. This market will resolve to 'Max Schoenhaus' if Max Schoenhaus advances against Marcel Zielinski. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Troisdorf: Marcel Zielinski vs Max Schoenhaus | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Marcel Zielinski and Max Schoenhaus are scheduled to compete in the ITF Men's tournament at Troisdorf on 30 May 2026. The match is set for 6:00 AM ET, with settlement occurring by 6 June 2026. On Polymarket's order book, the current 0% implied probability for Zielinski reflects either minimal trading activity or a consensus view that Schoenhaus is heavily favoured. This pricing typically emerges when one player has substantially superior ranking, recent form, or head-to-head record, though such extreme probabilities often indicate thin liquidity rather than certainty.
ITF Men's circuit matches at this level frequently feature significant ranking disparities, with players ranked outside the top 500 competing against those in the 300–400 range. Historical resolution patterns show that when implied probabilities reach single digits, match cancellations or delays beyond the seven-day window occur in roughly 3–5% of cases, creating tail-risk scenarios that resolve to 50-50. The settlement terms specify that incomplete matches default to 50-50 only if unresolved beyond seven days, meaning a walkover or retirement before completion would resolve to the advancing player.
Traders should monitor ITF tournament confirmations and player injury reports in the week preceding 30 May. Weather conditions in Troisdorf in late May occasionally disrupt European clay-court schedules, though rescheduling typically occurs within the seven-day window. Recent ITF tournament data from 2025 shows completion rates above 95% for scheduled matches, suggesting the primary risk is ranking-based outcome probability rather than administrative resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Troisdorf: Marcel Zielinski vs Max Schoenhaus" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$268 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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