Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Marcel Zielinski and Johan Oscar Lien in the ITF Men Rosbach, originally scheduled for June 4, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marcel Zielinski' if Marcel Zielinski advances against Johan Oscar Lien. This market will resolve to 'Johan Oscar Lien' if Johan Oscar Lien advances against Marcel Zielinski. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Rosbach: Marcel Zielinski vs Johan Oscar Lien | 55% YES | 46% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Marcel Zielinski and Johan Oscar Lien are scheduled to compete in the ITF Men's Rosbach tournament on 4 June 2026, with the match originally set for 08:00 ET. The current order book on Polymarket prices Zielinski's advancement at 31 per cent, implying Lien as the favoured outcome at 69 per cent. This probability reflects real-time trading activity and represents the aggregate assessment of market participants with capital deployed on both sides.
ITF Futures matches at the Rosbach venue typically feature players ranked outside the ATP top 200, where form variance and surface-specific preparation substantially influence outcomes. Historical ITF clay-court tournaments show that unseeded players with limited recent match play often underperform relative to their rankings, particularly when facing opponents with consecutive tournament appearances. The 31 per cent probability for Zielinski suggests the market perceives a meaningful disadvantage, likely stemming from recent results, head-to-head record, or preparation status relative to Lien.
Traders should monitor tournament draw confirmations and any withdrawal announcements in the week preceding 4 June, as ITF events occasionally see late scratches. Recent player ranking updates and ATP Challenger results for both competitors will provide updated form indicators. The settlement window extends to 11 June, allowing seven days for match completion; delays beyond this trigger a 50-50 resolution. Any official postponement or cancellation notices from the ITF or tournament organisers would immediately alter market dynamics and settlement conditions.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Rosbach: Marcel Zielinski vs Johan Oscar Lien" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $219 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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