Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Caroline Werner and Luisina Giovannini in the ITF Women Trnava, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Caroline Werner' if Caroline Werner advances against Luisina Giovannini. This market will resolve to 'Luisina Giovannini' if Luisina Giovannini advances against Caroline Werner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Trnava: Caroline Werner vs Luisina Giovannini | 67% YES | 34% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 51% NO |
Caroline Werner faces Luisina Giovannini in an ITF Women's tournament match at Trnava, Slovakia, scheduled for 14 May 2026. The encounter pits two lower-ranked professionals competing on the secondary ITF circuit, where match outcomes often hinge on surface adaptation and recent match fitness. Polymarket's order book currently reflects a 50–50 split, indicating genuine uncertainty amongst traders regarding Werner's prospects of advancing past Giovannini.
Werner and Giovannini occupy similar career trajectories within professional tennis's developmental tier. Both players typically compete across ITF events with occasional WTA qualifying appearances; historical head-to-head records between players at this level remain sparse or non-existent, making direct precedent unhelpful. Instead, traders should examine recent ITF tournament results, win rates on clay surfaces (Trnava's court type), and performance consistency over the preceding three months. Players with momentum from consecutive tournament runs tend to outperform those returning from extended breaks, a pattern that has historically shifted implied probabilities in ITF markets by 10–15 percentage points.
The settlement window closes 21 May 2026, allowing seven days for match completion. Traders should monitor ITF Trnava's official draw updates and any weather disruptions affecting the Slovakia venue, as delays beyond the scheduled date without a completed result trigger a 50–50 resolution. Recent ITF scheduling changes have occasionally compressed tournament timelines; confirmation of the match proceeding on schedule remains the primary catalyst affecting current pricing.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Trnava: Caroline Werner vs Luisina Giovannini" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$65 in lifetime turnover and $421 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $65 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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