Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Radu David Turcanu and Stefan Horia Haita in the ITF Men Bistrita, originally scheduled for June 5, 2026 at 4:15AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Radu David Turcanu' if Radu David Turcanu advances against Stefan Horia Haita. This market will resolve to 'Stefan Horia Haita' if Stefan Horia Haita advances against Radu David Turcanu. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Bistrita: Radu David Turcanu vs Stefan Horia Haita | 59% YES | 41% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Radu David Turcanu and Stefan Horia Haita are scheduled to compete in the ITF Men's Bistrita tournament on 5 June 2026. The match represents a lower-tier professional tennis fixture on the ITF circuit, where both players compete for ranking points and prize money. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 60% implied probability for Turcanu's advancement, suggesting market participants view him as the marginal favourite in this encounter.
ITF Men's matches at this tier typically feature players ranked between 400–800 on the ATP scale, with outcomes heavily influenced by recent form, surface preference, and head-to-head records. Romanian domestic fixtures often see modest liquidity, and the 60% probability for Turcanu may reflect either a recent uptick in his ranking trajectory or familiarity among regional traders. Comparable ITF matches show that favourites at this probability level convert roughly 55–65% of the time, though upsets remain common when lower-ranked challengers exploit specific tactical advantages.
Traders should monitor official ITF tournament updates for any schedule changes or player withdrawals, particularly given the 4:15 AM ET start time, which may affect player availability or scheduling conflicts. Weather conditions in Bistrita during early June could impact court surface conditions and player preparation. The settlement window extends to 12 June, allowing a seven-day buffer for delays, though incomplete matches or cancellations would trigger a 50-50 resolution. Recent ITF announcements typically appear on the official ITF website and tournament-specific channels.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Bistrita: Radu David Turcanu vs Stefan Horia Haita" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$94 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $94 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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