Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Martina Trevisan and Deborah Chiesa in the ITF Women Caserta, originally scheduled for June 4, 2026 at 10:15AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Martina Trevisan' if Martina Trevisan advances against Deborah Chiesa. This market will resolve to 'Deborah Chiesa' if Deborah Chiesa advances against Martina Trevisan. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Caserta: Martina Trevisan vs Deborah Chiesa | 67% YES | 34% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Martina Trevisan faces Deborah Chiesa in an ITF Women's event at Caserta, scheduled for 4 June 2026. The match is set for 10:15 AM ET, with settlement occurring by 11 June 2026. Current order book pricing on Polymarket reflects a 67% implied probability for Trevisan's advancement, suggesting market participants view her as the favoured outcome.
Trevisan, an Italian player ranked around 150–160 on the WTA tour, brings considerably more professional experience than Chiesa, who competes primarily on the ITF circuit. Historical patterns in lower-tier ITF events show that ranking differential and tour-level exposure typically correlate with match outcomes, though upsets remain common when players are relatively close in development stage. Chiesa's record against higher-ranked opposition provides limited precedent for assessing her likelihood of a breakthrough result here.
Key variables for traders centre on player fitness and scheduling. Any withdrawal announcements or injury updates in the days preceding 4 June would shift probabilities materially. Weather conditions at the Caserta venue could affect match timing; the settlement window extends seven days, meaning delays beyond that threshold would trigger a 50-50 resolution. Tournament draw confirmation and any late-round scheduling changes should be monitored through official ITF communications and player social media channels, as these factors have historically influenced match completion rates in lower-tier events.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Caserta: Martina Trevisan vs Deborah Chiesa" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$116 in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $116 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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