Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Alana Subasic and Marie Villet in the ITF Women Kayseri, originally scheduled for May 24, 2026 at 2:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alana Subasic' if Alana Subasic advances against Marie Villet. This market will resolve to 'Marie Villet' if Marie Villet advances against Alana Subasic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Kayseri: Alana Subasic vs Marie Villet | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Alana Subasic and Marie Villet are scheduled to compete in the ITF Women's Kayseri tournament on 24 May 2026. The match represents a lower-tier professional tennis fixture within the International Tennis Federation circuit, where both players typically compete for ranking points and prize money. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for resolution, suggesting traders are pricing in near-certainty that the match will occur and produce a definitive winner by the settlement deadline of 31 May 2026.
ITF Women's events at the Kayseri venue have historically maintained reliable scheduling and completion rates, with cancellations or extended delays remaining uncommon. Lower-ranked professional matches typically proceed as scheduled unless weather conditions prove severe or one player withdraws due to injury. The probability distribution currently embedded in Polymarket's order book suggests traders have assessed the likelihood of both players arriving and competing as substantially higher than the risk of administrative disruption or retirement mid-match.
Key variables for traders monitoring this market include official ITF tournament updates, player injury announcements, and weather forecasts for the Kayseri region in late May. Any withdrawal notification from either player's camp would materially alter the market, as would scheduling changes announced by tournament organisers. The seven-day grace period built into the resolution criteria provides a buffer for minor delays, though the tight settlement window means extended postponements would trigger the 50-50 tie-break clause rather than indefinite waiting.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kayseri: Alana Subasic vs Marie Villet" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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