Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Tsuki Shibutani and Sae Noguchi in the ITF Women Toyama, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 10:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tsuki Shibutani' if Tsuki Shibutani advances against Sae Noguchi. This market will resolve to 'Sae Noguchi' if Sae Noguchi advances against Tsuki Shibutani. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Toyama: Tsuki Shibutani vs Sae Noguchi | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| Completed Match | 49% YES | 51% NO |
Tsuki Shibutani and Sae Noguchi are scheduled to meet in the ITF Women's Toyama tournament on 13 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Shibutani's advancement at 7%, implying Noguchi is heavily favoured at 93%. This pricing reflects either a substantial skill gap between the players or material uncertainty about match completion, given the seven-day resolution window extends to 21 May.
Both players compete primarily on the ITF Women's circuit, where outcomes depend heavily on recent form, surface preference, and head-to-head records. Japanese domestic ITF tournaments often see variable attendance and scheduling reliability; matches occasionally face delays or cancellations due to weather or administrative factors. The current probability skew suggests traders are either pricing in a significant ranking or recent performance differential, or factoring in non-negligible risk that the match does not conclude within the settlement window—which would trigger a 50-50 resolution.
Traders should monitor ITF tournament draw confirmations and any weather forecasts for the Toyama region in mid-May, as clay-court tournaments in Japan can experience disruption. Recent ITF results and ranking movements for both players will clarify whether the 7% reflects genuine expectation of an upset or reflects uncertainty premium. Official tournament updates typically appear on the ITF website and through Japanese tennis federation channels in the week preceding play.
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This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Toyama: Tsuki Shibutani vs Sae Noguchi" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $80 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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