Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Nicola Senn and Mak Mikovic in the ITF Men Ljubljana, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nicola Senn' if Nicola Senn advances against Mak Mikovic. This market will resolve to 'Mak Mikovic' if Mak Mikovic advances against Nicola Senn. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Ljubljana: Nicola Senn vs Mak Mikovic | 22% YES | 79% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Nicola Senn and Mak Mikovic are scheduled to compete in the ITF Men's Ljubljana tournament on 3 June 2026. The market currently prices Senn's advancement at 22 per cent, reflecting a substantial underdog position against Mikovic. This probability is derived from Polymarket's order book, where traders have positioned themselves accordingly; the current spread reflects modest backing for the Swiss player relative to his opponent.
Senn, ranked outside the ATP top 200, has competed primarily on the ITF circuit where match outcomes depend heavily on surface preference, recent form, and head-to-head records. Mikovic, similarly positioned in the lower professional ranks, brings comparable experience at this level. Historical ITF matches between players of equivalent ranking show that upsets occur in roughly 25–30 per cent of encounters, suggesting the 22 per cent probability may reflect either a perceived edge for Mikovic or recent performance data favouring him. Without published rankings or recent tournament results immediately available, traders are likely calibrating on general circuit patterns and any available qualifying-round information.
Key variables for traders monitoring this market include official tournament draw confirmation, any withdrawal announcements, and surface conditions at the Ljubljana venue. The settlement window closes 10 June 2026, allowing a seven-day buffer for match completion or rescheduling. Injury reports or late withdrawals in the days preceding 3 June could shift the order book significantly, particularly if either player's fitness status becomes public. Court scheduling changes or weather delays could also trigger volatility, though the extended settlement window provides protection against minor postponements.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Ljubljana: Nicola Senn vs Mak Mikovic" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$14 in lifetime turnover and $907 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $14 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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