Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Mia Ristic and Anastasia Gasanova in the ITF Women Kursumlijska Banja, originally scheduled for May 26, 2026 at 5:01AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mia Ristic' if Mia Ristic advances against Anastasia Gasanova. This market will resolve to 'Anastasia Gasanova' if Anastasia Gasanova advances against Mia Ristic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mia Ristic vs Anastasia Gasanova | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Mia Ristic and Anastasia Gasanova are scheduled to compete in the ITF Women's tournament at Kursumlijska Banja on 26 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Ristic's advancement, suggesting either overwhelming confidence in her prospects or minimal liquidity at the current price. ITF tournaments at this tier typically feature players ranked outside the WTA top 200, where match outcomes can be volatile and dependent on recent form, surface preference, and head-to-head records.
The 100% probability reading warrants scrutiny given the settlement window extends to 2 June, allowing seven days for the match to conclude. Historical ITF events at smaller venues occasionally experience scheduling delays or cancellations due to weather or facility constraints, though Kursumlijska Banja has maintained a consistent calendar. Neither player has extensive recent ITF circuit history readily available through major databases, which typically means limited predictive data and higher uncertainty than the current probability suggests.
Traders should monitor tournament draw confirmations and any player withdrawal announcements in the week preceding the match. Surface conditions at the Serbian venue—typically clay—may favour particular playing styles. The settlement mechanism's 50-50 resolution for delays beyond seven days or incomplete matches creates a secondary risk factor; any disruption would collapse the current pricing structure entirely. Liquidity depth on the order book will determine whether the 100% figure reflects genuine conviction or simply thin trading volume at extreme prices.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Mia Ristic vs Anastasia Gasanova" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$814 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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