Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Vuk Radjenovic and Boris Butulija in the ITF Men Kursumlijska Banja, originally scheduled for May 28, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Vuk Radjenovic' if Vuk Radjenovic advances against Boris Butulija. This market will resolve to 'Boris Butulija' if Boris Butulija advances against Vuk Radjenovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vuk Radjenovic vs Boris Butulija | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Vuk Radjenovic and Boris Butulija are scheduled to meet in the ITF Men's tournament at Kursumlijska Banja on 28 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Radjenovic's advancement, suggesting the market has priced in either a significant disparity in player strength, recent form data, or head-to-head record favouring the Serbian player. This extreme probability reading warrants scrutiny, as ITF-level matches—particularly at lower-tier tournaments—frequently produce unexpected outcomes due to surface conditions, player preparation levels, and the relatively shallow talent pools at these events.
Historical ITF tournament data shows that matches with such skewed probabilities often reflect incomplete information rather than genuine certainty. Lower-ranked players frequently upset favourites at ITF events, where coaching quality, injury status, and recent match fitness vary considerably. Without recent tournament results or head-to-head history readily available for both players, the market's extreme confidence may reflect limited liquidity or order book positioning rather than fundamental assessment of match likelihood.
Key variables for traders include confirmation of both players' participation closer to the scheduled date, any withdrawal announcements, and surface conditions at the Kursumlijska Banja venue. ITF tournaments occasionally experience schedule disruptions or player withdrawals due to injury or conflicting commitments. The settlement window extends to 4 June 2026, providing a seven-day buffer beyond the original match date; any delays beyond this period would trigger a 50-50 resolution. Monitor ITF official announcements and player social media for withdrawal notices or scheduling changes in the fortnight preceding the match.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Vuk Radjenovic vs Boris Butulija" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$127 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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