Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Karla Popovic and Matilde Mariani in the ITF Women Monastir, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 8:15AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Karla Popovic' if Karla Popovic advances against Matilde Mariani. This market will resolve to 'Matilde Mariani' if Matilde Mariani advances against Karla Popovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Monastir: Karla Popovic vs Matilde Mariani | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Karla Popovic faces Matilde Mariani in the ITF Women's tournament at Monastir, Tunisia, scheduled for 27 May 2026. The match is currently priced at 100% implied probability for Popovic's advancement on Polymarket's order book, reflecting either extremely confident backing or minimal liquidity depth at current levels. This pricing suggests traders believe Popovic will progress to the next round, though the extreme probability warrants scrutiny given typical match uncertainty.
ITF Women's events at this level feature significant variance in outcomes, particularly when ranking gaps are modest or player form is inconsistent. Historical precedent shows that matches between players ranked within 200 positions of each other—common at Monastir-tier tournaments—settle with winners at roughly 55–65% probability rather than near-certainty. The 100% reading likely reflects thin order book depth rather than genuine consensus, meaning modest backing of Mariani could shift the probability substantially if additional capital enters the market.
Traders should monitor player withdrawal announcements through the ITF's official draw updates, typically released 48 hours before tournament play. Surface conditions at Monastir clay courts and recent match records from both players' spring schedules will provide concrete form indicators. The settlement window extends to 3 June 2026 at 12:15 UTC, allowing seven days for match completion; any delay beyond this triggers a 50–50 resolution. Current extreme pricing leaves room for value if either player's recent results or fitness status shifts market expectations materially.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Monastir: Karla Popovic vs Matilde Mariani" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$889 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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