Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Julien Penzlin and Imanol Lopez Morillo in the ITF Men Rosbach, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Julien Penzlin' if Julien Penzlin advances against Imanol Lopez Morillo. This market will resolve to 'Imanol Lopez Morillo' if Imanol Lopez Morillo advances against Julien Penzlin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Rosbach: Julien Penzlin vs Imanol Lopez Morillo | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Julien Penzlin faces Imanol Lopez Morillo in the ITF Men's Rosbach tournament, scheduled for 3 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 16% implied probability for Penzlin's victory, pricing him as a substantial underdog in this lower-tier professional match. ITF tournaments sit below ATP level and attract players developing their ranking points or those rebuilding after injury; both competitors operate in this space where form volatility and match fitness carry outsized importance.
Historical context for ITF men's matches shows that seeding and ranking differential typically correlate with outcome probability, though upsets occur more frequently than in ATP events due to the variable quality of opposition and surface conditions. A 16% probability for Penzlin suggests Lopez Morillo holds a meaningful ranking or seeding advantage, or that recent form data favours the Spanish player. Without confirmed seeding information, traders should verify the ATP rankings of both players and any recent ITF results; such disparities often explain why crowd probability settles at these levels.
Key catalysts include official tournament draw confirmation, which typically arrives days before play, and any late withdrawals or schedule adjustments. Surface conditions at Rosbach—clay courts are standard for German ITF events—may disproportionately favour one player's style. Injury reports or practice session observations shared by tournament observers can shift probabilities substantially. The settlement window closes 10 June 2026, allowing seven days for completion; delays beyond this trigger a 50-50 resolution, creating tail risk for either side.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Rosbach: Julien Penzlin vs Imanol Lopez Morillo" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$184 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $184 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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