Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Marko Maksimovic and Noa Vukadin in the ITF Men Bol, originally scheduled for May 29, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marko Maksimovic' if Marko Maksimovic advances against Noa Vukadin. This market will resolve to 'Noa Vukadin' if Noa Vukadin advances against Marko Maksimovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Bol: Marko Maksimovic vs Noa Vukadin | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Marko Maksimovic and Noa Vukadin are scheduled to meet in the ITF Men's tournament at Bol, Croatia on 29 May 2026. The match is set for 04:00 ET, with settlement occurring by 5 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 0% implied probability for Maksimovic, indicating traders are pricing near-certainty for Vukadin or substantial uncertainty about match execution.
ITF Men's circuit matches at lower-tier venues frequently encounter scheduling disruptions, weather delays, and player withdrawals. The Bol tournament operates on outdoor clay courts in the Adriatic region, where late May weather patterns can necessitate rescheduling. Historical precedent suggests that matches delayed beyond the seven-day threshold without completion typically resolve to 50-50 splits, creating tail-risk scenarios that sophisticated traders monitor. The extreme skew toward Vukadin at 0% for Maksimovic warrants scrutiny—such pricing often reflects either late-breaking information about player fitness or withdrawal likelihood rather than pure match-outcome assessment.
Key catalysts include official tournament draw confirmations, player injury announcements, and weather forecasts for the Bol region in late May. Traders should monitor ITF World Tennis Tour updates and player social media for any withdrawal notices or schedule changes. The settlement window's seven-day buffer means matches delayed past 5 June without completion will trigger the 50-50 resolution, a material consideration given the tournament's coastal location and typical spring weather volatility in the Adriatic.
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This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Bol: Marko Maksimovic vs Noa Vukadin" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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