Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Martineau and Marcel Zielinski in the ITF Men Troisdorf, originally scheduled for May 29, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Martineau' if Matteo Martineau advances against Marcel Zielinski. This market will resolve to 'Marcel Zielinski' if Marcel Zielinski advances against Matteo Martineau. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Troisdorf: Matteo Martineau vs Marcel Zielinski | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Matteo Martineau faces Marcel Zielinski in an ITF Men's event at Troisdorf, Germany, scheduled for 29 May 2026. The match forms part of the ITF World Tennis Tour circuit, which comprises lower-tier professional and semi-professional tournaments below ATP and Challenger level. Settlement occurs by 5 June 2026, allowing a one-week window for completion. The current order book on Polymarket reflects zero probability for a Martineau victory, suggesting either strong market conviction around Zielinski's form or minimal liquidity establishing a floor price.
ITF matches at this level carry elevated cancellation and delay risk compared to higher-tier events, given smaller operational budgets and weather exposure at European venues in late May. Historical precedent shows ITF tournaments occasionally reschedule matches beyond the seven-day threshold, which would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause. Traders should monitor both players' recent ITF results and ranking trajectories; Zielinski's current standing relative to Martineau will inform whether the zero probability reflects genuine form differential or market inefficiency from low trading volume.
Key catalysts include official tournament draw confirmation and any injury announcements in the fortnight preceding the match. Weather forecasts for Troisdorf in late May should be tracked, as rain delays are common at outdoor clay and hard courts in the region. The ITF's official website and ATP/WTA ranking updates will provide the most reliable data on player status closer to the scheduled date.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Troisdorf: Matteo Martineau vs Marcel Zielinski" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$373 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: