Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Natsumi Kawaguchi and Eri Shimizu in the ITF Women Kurume, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Natsumi Kawaguchi' if Natsumi Kawaguchi advances against Eri Shimizu. This market will resolve to 'Eri Shimizu' if Eri Shimizu advances against Natsumi Kawaguchi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Kurume: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Eri Shimizu | 99% YES | 1% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Natsumi Kawaguchi and Eri Shimizu are scheduled to compete in the ITF Women's Kurume tournament on 13 May 2026. The match represents a domestic Japanese fixture within the ITF circuit, where both players compete regularly. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 47% implied probability for Kawaguchi's advancement, suggesting near-parity between the two competitors in market participants' assessment.
Kawaguchi and Shimizu are both established ITF circuit players with comparable ranking trajectories within Japan's domestic tennis structure. Historical ITF matchups between players of similar ranking typically settle around 50-50 odds, with slight variations reflecting recent form, head-to-head records, and surface-specific performance data. The 47% probability for Kawaguchi indicates marginal market confidence favouring Shimizu, though the spread remains narrow enough to suggest genuine uncertainty about the outcome.
Traders should monitor ITF tournament draws and official scheduling confirmations as the event date approaches, particularly given the seven-day delay threshold built into the resolution criteria. Any withdrawal announcements, injury reports, or surface condition changes affecting the Kurume venue could shift the order book materially. Recent ITF results for both players through April 2026 will provide the most relevant form indicators, as will any head-to-head records between them. The settlement window closes on 21 May 2026, allowing one week post-match for result confirmation and dispute resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kurume: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Eri Shimizu" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $41K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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