Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Aljaz Jeran and Luka Talan Lopatic in the ITF Men Ljubljana, originally scheduled for June 5, 2026 at 5:15AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Aljaz Jeran' if Aljaz Jeran advances against Luka Talan Lopatic. This market will resolve to 'Luka Talan Lopatic' if Luka Talan Lopatic advances against Aljaz Jeran. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Ljubljana: Aljaz Jeran vs Luka Talan Lopatic | 66% YES | 34% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Aljaz Jeran, a Slovenian player competing on the ITF Men's circuit, faces compatriot Luka Talan Lopatic in Ljubljana on 5 June 2026. The 66% implied probability on Polymarket's order book currently favours Jeran. This pricing reflects the current state of bids and offers across the market's liquidity pools, with traders positioning on the match outcome ahead of the settlement window closing on 12 June.
Jeran holds a ranking advantage typical of ITF matchups where seeding and recent form diverge significantly. Historical ITF Ljubljana results show home-nation players often attract modest probability premiums, though this varies considerably based on recent tournament performance and head-to-head records. The 66-34 split suggests the market perceives meaningful separation between the two competitors, rather than treating this as a closely matched encounter. Comparable ITF events in Central Europe have shown such probability distributions correlate with ranking gaps of approximately 150–250 positions on the ATP scale.
Traders should monitor official ITF tournament updates for any schedule changes, as the original 5:15 AM ET slot presents potential for delays or rescheduling. Court conditions in Ljubljana during early June and player injury reports in the week preceding the match represent material catalysts. The settlement window extends seven days beyond the scheduled date, providing buffer for weather-related postponements, though any delay beyond that threshold triggers a 50-50 resolution. Recent ITF tournament coverage from ATP and WTA official channels should confirm final draw confirmations and any late withdrawals.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Ljubljana: Aljaz Jeran vs Luka Talan Lopatic" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$373 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $373 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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