Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Sora Fukuda and Yuta Tomida in the ITF Men Karuizawa, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sora Fukuda' if Sora Fukuda advances against Yuta Tomida. This market will resolve to 'Yuta Tomida' if Yuta Tomida advances against Sora Fukuda. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Karuizawa: Sora Fukuda vs Yuta Tomida | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Sora Fukuda and Yuta Tomida are scheduled to meet in the ITF Men's Karuizawa tournament on 27 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for match completion, suggesting traders are pricing in near-certainty that the fixture will be played and produce a winner within the settlement window closing 4 June 2026. This probability formation typically reflects confidence in tournament scheduling stability and both players' availability at the time of market observation.
ITF Men's circuits at the Karuizawa venue have historically maintained reliable scheduling, with weather disruptions and player withdrawals remaining infrequent relative to lower-tier professional events. Both Fukuda and Tomida compete regularly on the ITF circuit; Fukuda has competed in Japanese domestic tournaments whilst Tomida has shown consistent participation in regional events. The 100% probability suggests the market is discounting material cancellation or extended delay risk, though the seven-day grace period built into resolution criteria does provide some buffer against minor scheduling slippage.
Traders should monitor official ITF tournament draws and any player injury announcements in the weeks preceding the match. Weather forecasts for Karuizawa in late May and any updates from the Japan Tennis Association regarding venue conditions would serve as practical catalysts. The settlement window's 4 June deadline leaves minimal margin for rescheduling beyond the original date, making early-stage disruption signals more consequential than they might be in markets with longer resolution windows.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Karuizawa: Sora Fukuda vs Yuta Tomida" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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