Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Sora Fukuda and Koki Matsuda in the ITF Men Karuizawa, originally scheduled for May 28, 2026 at 9:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sora Fukuda' if Sora Fukuda advances against Koki Matsuda. This market will resolve to 'Koki Matsuda' if Koki Matsuda advances against Sora Fukuda. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Karuizawa: Sora Fukuda vs Koki Matsuda | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Sora Fukuda and Koki Matsuda are scheduled to compete in the ITF Men's Karuizawa tournament on 28 May 2026. The match represents a domestic Japanese fixture within the ITF circuit, where both players operate at similar competitive levels. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for resolution, suggesting traders are pricing near-certainty that the match will be completed and produce a decisive winner by the settlement deadline of 5 June 2026.
ITF Men's events at the Karuizawa venue have historically maintained reliable scheduling, with cancellations or extended delays remaining uncommon. Japanese domestic tournaments typically proceed as scheduled absent severe weather or player injury. The 50-50 resolution clause—triggered only if the match is cancelled entirely, delayed beyond seven days without completion, or ends in a tie—represents a tail risk that current market pricing effectively discounts. This suggests traders view the tournament infrastructure and player availability as sufficiently stable.
Key variables for position management include weather forecasts approaching the scheduled date, any player withdrawal announcements, and court surface conditions at the Karuizawa facility. ITF tournaments in Japan rarely experience the logistical disruptions seen at larger ATP or WTA events. Traders should monitor official ITF communications and the tournament draw confirmation in the weeks preceding play. The settlement window provides a one-week buffer beyond the match date, allowing time for results verification and dispute resolution before final settlement on 5 June.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Karuizawa: Sora Fukuda vs Koki Matsuda" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$8K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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