Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Jeffrey Fradkin and Melih Anavatan in the ITF Men Kayseri, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 4:15AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jeffrey Fradkin' if Jeffrey Fradkin advances against Melih Anavatan. This market will resolve to 'Melih Anavatan' if Melih Anavatan advances against Jeffrey Fradkin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Kayseri: Jeffrey Fradkin vs Melih Anavatan | 30% YES | 70% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Jeffrey Fradkin, an American ITF circuit player, faces Melih Anavatan, a Turkish competitor, in the ITF Men's Kayseri tournament scheduled for 3 June 2026. The match was originally set for 4:15 AM ET. Fradkin's current implied win probability stands at 30% on Polymarket's order book, reflecting a significant underdog position relative to Anavatan. The settlement window extends to 10 June, allowing a seven-day buffer for scheduling adjustments or completion delays before the market resolves to a 50-50 split.
ITF Men's circuit matches at this tier typically feature players ranked outside the ATP top 500, where head-to-head records and recent form carry substantial weight in probability formation. Anavatan's home-court advantage in Kayseri—a Turkish venue—conventionally adds 5–8 percentage points to a local player's implied probability. Fradkin's 30% probability suggests the market views him as significantly less favoured on surface preference, recent results, or ranking differential. Comparable ITF matches involving American players competing abroad against local competitors have historically settled within 5–10 points of opening probabilities when both players are active on the circuit.
Traders should monitor tournament draw confirmations and any player withdrawals through the ITF's official entry lists. Surface conditions at Kayseri—typically hard court—and weather forecasts closer to the scheduled date may shift probabilities if either player has documented surface-specific performance gaps. Last-minute scheduling changes remain common on the ITF circuit; any postponement beyond 7 June would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kayseri: Jeffrey Fradkin vs Melih Anavatan" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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