Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Marko Topo and Emilio Nava in the Heilbronn, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marko Topo' if Marko Topo advances against Emilio Nava. This market will resolve to 'Emilio Nava' if Emilio Nava advances against Marko Topo. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Heilbronn: Marko Topo vs Emilio Nava Match O/U 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Heilbronn: Marko Topo vs Emilio Nava Match O/U 22.5 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Heilbronn: Marko Topo vs Emilio Nava Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Heilbronn: Marko Topo vs Emilio Nava Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Heilbronn: Marko Topo vs Emilio Nava Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| Heilbronn: Marko Topo vs Emilio Nava Match O/U 23.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Heilbronn: Marko Topo vs Emilio Nava Set 1 Winner | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| Heilbronn: Marko Topo vs Emilio Nava Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Marko Topo and Emilio Nava are scheduled to meet in the Heilbronn tournament on 3 June 2026. The match represents a second-round encounter at a mid-tier ATP 250 event. Current order-book activity on Polymarket has balanced both players at 50% implied probability, reflecting genuine uncertainty about the outcome rather than a clear consensus among traders.
Topo and Nava occupy similar career trajectories within the lower-ranked professional circuit, with both players typically competing in Challenger events and occasional ATP main draws. Historical matchups between players of comparable ranking and surface preference at grass-court tournaments like Heilbronn often settle near even odds when neither player has established recent form dominance. The 50-50 split on the order book suggests traders are pricing this as a genuine toss-up, with no material information advantage favouring either competitor heading into the match.
Traders should monitor ATP rankings updates and recent grass-court performance in the weeks preceding 3 June, particularly any injury announcements or late withdrawals that could affect seeding or draw positioning. Tournament scheduling changes remain a live variable—the settlement window extends to 10 June, allowing seven days for rescheduling before the market defaults to 50-50. Confirmation of both players' participation in the Heilbronn draw and their performance in qualifying rounds will provide concrete signals for repositioning exposure on the order book.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Heilbronn: Marko Topo vs Emilio Nava" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$106 in lifetime turnover and $7K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $106 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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