Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Jan-Lennard Struff and Nicolas Alvarez Varona in the Valencia, originally scheduled for May 12, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Jan-Lennard Struff' if Jan-Lennard Struff advances against Nicolas Alvarez Varona. This market will resolve to 'Nicolas Alvarez Varona' if Nicolas Alvarez Varona advances against Jan-Lennard Struff. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Valencia: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nicolas Alvarez Varona | 76% YES | 25% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nicolas Alvarez Varona Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 73% YES | 27% NO |
| Valencia: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nicolas Alvarez Varona Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 34% YES | 67% NO |
| Valencia: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nicolas Alvarez Varona Set 1 Winner | 70% YES | 31% NO |
| Valencia: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nicolas Alvarez Varona Match O/U 21.5 | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Valencia: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nicolas Alvarez Varona Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nicolas Alvarez Varona Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Jan-Lennard Struff faces Nicolas Alvarez Varona in a first-round match at the Valencia Open 500 tournament, originally scheduled for 12 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 76% implied probability favouring Struff's advancement, suggesting the market views him as a clear favourite to progress past the Spanish qualifier.
Struff, a German player ranked in the ATP top 50, typically commands strong odds in ATP 500 events against lower-ranked opponents. Alvarez Varona, competing as a qualifier, enters with considerably less surface-specific preparation and tournament momentum. Historical patterns show ATP-ranked players advance against qualifiers roughly 75–80% of the time at this level, particularly on hard courts where Struff has demonstrated consistent performance. The current probability aligns closely with baseline expectations for this matchup profile.
Traders should monitor official tournament draws and any late withdrawals from the Valencia event, which could alter seeding and scheduling. Surface conditions at the Ciudad de la Luz venue and recent ATP rankings updates in the weeks preceding May will influence Struff's form assessment. Injury reports for either player represent the primary catalyst for significant probability shifts. The settlement window extends to 19 May, allowing seven days beyond the scheduled date for the match to conclude; delays beyond this threshold would trigger a 50-50 resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valencia: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Nicolas Alvarez Varona" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $25K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $2K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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