Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Pablo Llamas Ruiz and Jacopo Vasami in the Perugia, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Llamas Ruiz' if Pablo Llamas Ruiz advances against Jacopo Vasami. This market will resolve to 'Jacopo Vasami' if Jacopo Vasami advances against Pablo Llamas Ruiz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Jacopo Vasami | 72% YES | 28% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Jacopo Vasami Set 1 Winner | 67% YES | 34% NO |
| Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Jacopo Vasami Match O/U 21.5 | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Jacopo Vasami Match O/U 22.5 | 42% YES | 58% NO |
| Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Jacopo Vasami Match O/U 23.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Jacopo Vasami Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 76% YES | 24% NO |
| Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Jacopo Vasami Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Pablo Llamas Ruiz and Jacopo Vasami are scheduled to meet in the Perugia tournament on 3 June 2026. The market currently reflects a 71% implied probability that Llamas Ruiz advances, as shown across Polymarket's order book. This probability has formed through recent trading activity and represents the crowd's assessment of the matchup given available information about both players' current form and head-to-head record.
Llamas Ruiz, a Spanish player, has competed regularly on the ATP Challenger circuit where Perugia sits as a 250-level event. Vasami, an Italian player, holds home advantage in Perugia and typically performs well at domestic tournaments. Historical data from similar Challenger matchups suggests that home-court advantage typically shifts implied probabilities by 5–10 percentage points, though this varies by player ranking differential and recent results. The current 71% weighting toward Llamas Ruiz suggests traders are pricing in either a significant ranking or form advantage despite Vasami's local positioning.
Traders should monitor both players' results in the weeks preceding the match, particularly performances at other Challenger events that would indicate current fitness and confidence levels. Any late withdrawals or injury announcements would trigger immediate repricing. The settlement window closes 10 June 2026, allowing a seven-day buffer beyond the scheduled date; matches delayed beyond that threshold without completion resolve to 50-50, creating a tail risk that becomes relevant only if tournament scheduling issues emerge.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Jacopo Vasami" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$390 in lifetime turnover and $38K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $390 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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