Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Zsombor Piros and Lukas Neumayer in the Zagreb, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 12:15PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Zsombor Piros' if Zsombor Piros advances against Lukas Neumayer. This market will resolve to 'Lukas Neumayer' if Lukas Neumayer advances against Zsombor Piros. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Zagreb: Zsombor Piros vs Lukas Neumayer Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Zagreb: Zsombor Piros vs Lukas Neumayer Match O/U 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Zagreb: Zsombor Piros vs Lukas Neumayer Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Zagreb: Zsombor Piros vs Lukas Neumayer Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Zagreb: Zsombor Piros vs Lukas Neumayer Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Zagreb: Zsombor Piros vs Lukas Neumayer Match O/U 23.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Zagreb: Zsombor Piros vs Lukas Neumayer Set 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Zagreb: Zsombor Piros vs Lukas Neumayer Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Zsombor Piros and Lukas Neumayer are scheduled to meet in a first-round match at the Zagreb tennis tournament on 14 May 2026. The market currently reflects a 100% implied probability for Piros advancing, as shown across Polymarket's order book. This extreme skew suggests either substantial information asymmetry favouring Piros, or insufficient liquidity at deeper price levels to challenge the consensus. Settlement occurs by 21 May 2026, allowing a seven-day window for match completion.
Both players operate at the ATP Challenger and lower-ranked professional level, where upsets occur regularly and form can shift sharply week-to-week. Historical precedent from similar low-ranked matchups shows that 100% probabilities rarely reflect genuine certainty; such extremes typically indicate thin order books rather than overwhelming evidence of outcome. Comparable first-round encounters at regional tournaments frequently see the lower-ranked or less-favoured player mount competitive challenges, particularly when seeding data or recent results remain opaque to casual traders.
Traders should monitor official ATP and tournament communications for any withdrawal announcements, injury disclosures, or schedule changes in the days preceding 14 May. Recent form updates for both players—available through ATP rankings and Challenger circuit results—will clarify whether the current pricing reflects genuine dominance by Piros or simply reflects a lack of contrarian liquidity. Court surface conditions at Zagreb and head-to-head history, if any exists, provide additional calibration points before the settlement window closes.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Zagreb: Zsombor Piros vs Lukas Neumayer" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$7K in lifetime turnover and $9K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $7K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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