Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Marvin Moeller and Gauthier Onclin in the Heilbronn, originally scheduled for June 2, 2026 at 8:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Marvin Moeller' if Marvin Moeller advances against Gauthier Onclin. This market will resolve to 'Gauthier Onclin' if Gauthier Onclin advances against Marvin Moeller. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Heilbronn: Marvin Moeller vs Gauthier Onclin Match O/U 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Heilbronn: Marvin Moeller vs Gauthier Onclin Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Heilbronn: Marvin Moeller vs Gauthier Onclin Match O/U 23.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Heilbronn: Marvin Moeller vs Gauthier Onclin Set 1 Winner | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| Heilbronn: Marvin Moeller vs Gauthier Onclin Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Heilbronn: Marvin Moeller vs Gauthier Onclin Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Heilbronn: Marvin Moeller vs Gauthier Onclin Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Heilbronn: Marvin Moeller vs Gauthier Onclin Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Marvin Moeller and Gauthier Onclin are scheduled to meet in the Heilbronn tournament on 2 June 2026. The match represents a first-round encounter on grass, with settlement contingent on a completed result by 9 June 2026. Polymarket's order book currently implies a 51% probability for Moeller's advancement, reflecting near-parity in market assessment between the two competitors.
Both players operate in the lower-to-middle ATP rankings tier where head-to-head records and recent form carry substantial weight in match outcomes. Moeller, a German player competing on home soil, typically benefits from crowd support and surface familiarity on grass courts—factors that have historically shifted probabilities 3–5 percentage points in favour of home competitors at regional European tournaments. Onclin, a Belgian player, has shown variable performance on grass in prior seasons. The current 51–49 split suggests the market is pricing in Moeller's home advantage whilst acknowledging Onclin's competitive capability, rather than treating either as a clear favourite.
Traders should monitor ATP ranking updates and injury announcements in the fortnight preceding the match, as both players' fitness status and recent tournament results will influence order book movement. Grass-court preparation tournaments in May 2026 will provide concrete form indicators; strong performances by either player in those events could shift the probability meaningfully. Weather conditions at Heilbronn on match day—particularly wind and court moisture—historically affect grass-court play and may trigger late trading activity. The settlement window's seven-day buffer accommodates potential rain delays common to European grass tournaments.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Heilbronn: Marvin Moeller vs Gauthier Onclin" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$16K in lifetime turnover and $22K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $16K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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