Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Benjamin Hassan and Nicolas Mejia in the Oeiras 4, originally scheduled for May 12, 2026 at 7:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Benjamin Hassan' if Benjamin Hassan advances against Nicolas Mejia. This market will resolve to 'Nicolas Mejia' if Nicolas Mejia advances against Benjamin Hassan. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Oeiras 4: Benjamin Hassan vs Nicolas Mejia | 41% YES | 60% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Benjamin Hassan vs Nicolas Mejia Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Benjamin Hassan vs Nicolas Mejia Match O/U 21.5 | 57% YES | 43% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Benjamin Hassan vs Nicolas Mejia Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 73% YES | 27% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Benjamin Hassan vs Nicolas Mejia Set 1 Winner | 45% YES | 55% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Benjamin Hassan vs Nicolas Mejia Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Oeiras 4: Benjamin Hassan vs Nicolas Mejia Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Benjamin Hassan and Nicolas Mejia are scheduled to meet in the Oeiras 4 tournament on 12 May 2026 at 7:30 AM ET. The market currently prices Hassan's advancement at 40% on Polymarket's order book, reflecting modest confidence in the Argentine player relative to his opponent. The settlement window closes on 19 May, allowing a seven-day buffer for scheduling delays or administrative complications before the market defaults to a 50-50 split.
Hassan and Mejia operate at the lower rungs of professional tennis, where historical data on head-to-head records is sparse and recent form carries outsized weight. Players at this level show high variance in performance across surfaces and tournament conditions. The Oeiras tournament sits on the ATP Challenger circuit, where upsets occur frequently and seeding often proves unreliable. Comparable matches at this tier typically see probability distributions wider than mainstream ATP events, reflecting genuine uncertainty rather than information asymmetry.
Traders should monitor tournament draw confirmations and any late withdrawals in the days preceding 12 May, as injuries and scheduling conflicts are common at Challenger level. Surface conditions at the Oeiras venue—typically hard court—may favour one player's style; recent ATP Challenger results from Hassan and Mejia would clarify their current trajectory. The 40% implied probability suggests the market views Hassan as the underdog, though the order book depth and bid-ask spreads will indicate whether this reflects genuine consensus or thin liquidity.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Oeiras 4: Benjamin Hassan vs Nicolas Mejia" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$165 in lifetime turnover and $21K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $165 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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