Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Matteo Gigante and Reilly Opelka in the Perugia, originally scheduled for June 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matteo Gigante' if Matteo Gigante advances against Reilly Opelka. This market will resolve to 'Reilly Opelka' if Reilly Opelka advances against Matteo Gigante. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Perugia: Matteo Gigante vs Reilly Opelka | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Completed Match | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Perugia: Matteo Gigante vs Reilly Opelka Set 1 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Perugia: Matteo Gigante vs Reilly Opelka Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Perugia: Matteo Gigante vs Reilly Opelka Match O/U 23.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Perugia: Matteo Gigante vs Reilly Opelka Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Perugia: Matteo Gigante vs Reilly Opelka Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Perugia: Matteo Gigante vs Reilly Opelka Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Matteo Gigante and Reilly Opelka are scheduled to meet in the opening rounds of the Perugia ATP 250 tournament on 1 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50–50 split, indicating substantial uncertainty about which player will advance. Opelka, the American ranked in the top 40, brings consistent serve-based power and recent ATP-level experience, whilst Gigante, an Italian prospect, competes primarily on the Challenger circuit and holds a considerably lower ranking. The even probability suggests traders are pricing in either a genuine competitive match or meaningful uncertainty regarding player availability and form.
Historical matchups between established ATP players and rising Challenger-circuit competitors typically favour the higher-ranked player, particularly on hard courts where serving strength dominates. Opelka's record against lower-ranked opponents shows a strong conversion rate, though early-round upsets do occur, especially when the lower-ranked player is competing at home. The Italian crowd factor at Perugia may provide marginal support for Gigante, though this rarely shifts probabilities beyond 5–10 percentage points in professional tennis.
Traders should monitor Opelka's fitness status and any late withdrawals from the tournament draw in the week preceding 1 June. Gigante's recent Challenger results and any ATP-level experience gained between now and the match date will signal confidence levels. Tournament scheduling changes, weather delays, or surface conditions could also influence match dynamics. The settlement window extends to 8 June, allowing a one-week buffer for completion or resolution of any disruptions.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Perugia: Matteo Gigante vs Reilly Opelka" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$863 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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