Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Nerman Fatic and Elmer Moeller in the Zagreb, originally scheduled for May 12, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Nerman Fatic' if Nerman Fatic advances against Elmer Moeller. This market will resolve to 'Elmer Moeller' if Elmer Moeller advances against Nerman Fatic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Zagreb: Nerman Fatic vs Elmer Moeller | 37% YES | 64% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Zagreb: Nerman Fatic vs Elmer Moeller Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 68% YES | 32% NO |
| Zagreb: Nerman Fatic vs Elmer Moeller Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| Zagreb: Nerman Fatic vs Elmer Moeller Set 1 Winner | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Zagreb: Nerman Fatic vs Elmer Moeller Match O/U 21.5 | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| Zagreb: Nerman Fatic vs Elmer Moeller Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Zagreb: Nerman Fatic vs Elmer Moeller Match O/U 22.5 | 43% YES | 57% NO |
Nerman Fatic and Elmer Moeller are scheduled to meet in a Zagreb tennis match on 12 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Fatic's advancement at 37%, implying Moeller holds a 63% probability of progressing. This pricing reflects the aggregate of traders' assessments across the available liquidity on the platform.
Both players compete on the ATP Challenger circuit, where head-to-head records and recent form carry substantial weight in match outcomes. Fatic, a Bosnian player, and Moeller, an Austrian competitor, operate in similar ranking tiers where surface preference, recent tournament results, and momentum shifts can shift win probabilities by 10–15 percentage points. Historical Zagreb tournament data shows that home-region players occasionally receive modest crowd effects, though this effect diminishes against players of comparable ranking. The current 37% probability for Fatic suggests the market views Moeller as the favoured player, possibly reflecting recent ranking movements or head-to-head history.
Traders should monitor ATP Challenger draws and official tournament confirmations through the ATP website as the May date approaches. Injury announcements or late withdrawals could trigger resolution complications; the settlement window extends to 19 May, allowing a seven-day buffer for rescheduling. Court surface conditions in Zagreb and any late-season ranking shifts for either player in the weeks preceding the match will influence order book repricing. Confirmation of both players' participation in the Zagreb event remains the primary catalyst to watch.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Zagreb: Nerman Fatic vs Elmer Moeller" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$187 in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $187 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 19 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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