Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Damir Dzumhur and Alejo Sanchez Quilez in the Valencia, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Damir Dzumhur' if Damir Dzumhur advances against Alejo Sanchez Quilez. This market will resolve to 'Alejo Sanchez Quilez' if Alejo Sanchez Quilez advances against Damir Dzumhur. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Valencia: Damir Dzumhur vs Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 68% YES | 32% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Damir Dzumhur faces Alejo Sanchez Quilez in a Valencia tournament match scheduled for 13 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Dzumhur's advancement at 68%, reflecting a substantial favourite position. This probability emerges from the accumulated positions of traders responding to player form, ranking differentials, and recent competitive history rather than from any single catalyst.
Dzumhur, a former top-30 player with ATP experience, typically commands odds advantage over lower-ranked challengers in qualifying or early-round matches. Sanchez Quilez, a Spanish player competing primarily on the Challenger circuit, represents the kind of opponent where ranking gaps often translate into match outcomes. Historical patterns suggest players ranked significantly higher advance in roughly 70% of such matchups, though surface preference and recent form can shift these baseline expectations materially. The 68% probability sits near this empirical centre, indicating the market has not yet priced in substantial information favouring either player disproportionately.
Traders should monitor injury reports and withdrawal announcements through early May, as either player's fitness status could shift the order book sharply. Recent tournament results from both players—particularly performances on clay or hard courts in the weeks preceding Valencia—will inform whether the current probability holds. The settlement window closes 20 May at 12:00 UTC, allowing seven days beyond the scheduled match date for completion; any delay beyond that triggers a 50-50 resolution, introducing tail-risk considerations for positions held into that window.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valencia: Damir Dzumhur vs Alejo Sanchez Quilez" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$14 in lifetime turnover and $963 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $14 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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