Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the doubles tennis match between Kielan/Paulson and Bass/Genov in the Zagreb, originally scheduled for May 15, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Kielan/Paulson' if the team of Kielan/Paulson advances against Bass/Genov. This market will resolve to 'Bass/Genov' if the team of Bass/Genov advances against Kielan/Paulson. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Zagreb (Doubles): Kielan/Paulson vs Bass/Genov | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
The Zagreb doubles draw will feature the pairing of Kielan and Paulson against Bass and Genov in what is currently priced at even odds on Polymarket's order book. The match was originally scheduled for 15 May 2026 at 04:00 ET, with settlement occurring by 22 May 2026. The 50% implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty between two pairings with limited recent head-to-head history at the professional level, though the order book depth suggests modest liquidity around the midpoint rather than strong conviction in either direction.
Comparable doubles matchups at ATP 250 events like Zagreb typically see probability shifts driven by player form in the preceding weeks and surface-specific strengths. Paulson and Kielan's recent results on clay courts, where Zagreb is played, provide one reference point for assessing their baseline capability. Bass and Genov's partnership record and individual doubles rankings offer another. Historical doubles upsets at this tournament level occur at roughly 35–40% frequency, suggesting the current even split may slightly overvalue the lower-ranked pairing if seeding differentials are substantial.
Traders should monitor official ATP draw confirmations and any late withdrawals or injury announcements through the settlement window. Surface conditions and weather forecasts in the days preceding the match can materially affect doubles play, particularly on clay. Partnership chemistry and recent tournament results posted by either pairing in the fortnight before Zagreb will provide concrete data for reassessing the current midpoint pricing.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Zagreb (Doubles): Kielan/Paulson vs Bass/Genov" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $106 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 22 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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