Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the doubles tennis match between Gille/Verbeek and Arribage/Peers in the Bordeaux, originally scheduled for May 14, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Gille/Verbeek' if the team of Gille/Verbeek advances against Arribage/Peers. This market will resolve to 'Arribage/Peers' if the team of Arribage/Peers advances against Gille/Verbeek. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bordeaux (Doubles): Gille/Verbeek vs Arribage/Peers | 56% YES | 45% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 51% NO |
Gille and Verbeek face Arribage and Peers in a Bordeaux doubles match originally scheduled for 14 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Gille/Verbeek at 56% implied probability, reflecting modest favouritism. Settlement occurs by 21 May 2026, allowing a seven-day window for rescheduling should delays occur; matches cancelled outright or unfinished beyond that window resolve to 50-50.
Comparable ATP 250 doubles draws show that seeding and recent form heavily influence outcomes in clay-court events. Gille and Verbeek's ranking trajectory and head-to-head records against this pairing, alongside Arribage and Peers' recent tournament results, typically determine whether favourites hold. The 56% mark suggests the market perceives a slight edge without overwhelming confidence, consistent with competitive doubles pairings where upsets occur regularly.
Traders should monitor official ATP communications regarding player availability and injury status through early May, as withdrawals reshape doubles draw dynamics substantially. Court conditions at Bordeaux—typically clay—may favour certain playing styles. Any late-week announcements about scheduling conflicts or surface changes could shift the probability materially. The seven-day buffer reduces cancellation risk compared to tighter settlement windows, though weather disruptions remain a consideration for spring European clay tournaments.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Bordeaux (Doubles): Gille/Verbeek vs Arribage/Peers" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $175 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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