Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the doubles tennis match between Barton/Vrbensky and Cervantes/Karol in the Tunis, originally scheduled for May 15, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Barton/Vrbensky' if the team of Barton/Vrbensky advances against Cervantes/Karol. This market will resolve to 'Cervantes/Karol' if the team of Cervantes/Karol advances against Barton/Vrbensky. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Tunis (Doubles): Barton/Vrbensky vs Cervantes/Karol | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Completed Match | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Tunis (Doubles): Barton/Vrbensky vs Cervantes/Karol Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Tunis (Doubles): Barton/Vrbensky vs Cervantes/Karol Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Tunis (Doubles): Barton/Vrbensky vs Cervantes/Karol Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Tunis (Doubles): Barton/Vrbensky vs Cervantes/Karol Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Tunis (Doubles): Barton/Vrbensky vs Cervantes/Karol Match O/U 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Tunis (Doubles): Barton/Vrbensky vs Cervantes/Karol Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
A doubles tennis match between Barton/Vrbensky and Cervantes/Karol is scheduled for the Tunis tournament on 15 May 2026 at 7:00 AM ET. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50-50 split, indicating genuine uncertainty amongst traders about which pairing will advance. The settlement window closes on 22 May 2026, allowing a week for the match to conclude; any cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days triggers a 50-50 resolution.
Doubles pairings at lower-tier ATP and ITF events often show volatile form, with team chemistry and surface adaptation playing outsized roles compared to singles. Barton and Vrbensky's recent partnership record and clay-court experience relative to Cervantes and Karol's trajectory will inform whether the current even odds reflect genuine parity or market indifference. Historical precedent suggests that unseeded or lower-ranked doubles teams frequently produce upsets at regional tournaments, particularly when one pairing has limited prior match history together.
Traders should monitor official tournament draw confirmations and any late withdrawals or substitutions in the days preceding the match. Injury reports or scheduling conflicts affecting either team's preparation time could shift the probability meaningfully. Surface conditions at the Tunis venue and recent head-to-head records between these players, if available, remain key data points. The settlement window's seven-day buffer provides reasonable protection against fixture postponements, though weather delays remain a material risk for outdoor clay tournaments in May.
Traditionally, tennis is played between two people in a singles match, or two pairs in a doubles match. Tennis can also be played on different courts, including grass courts, clay courts, hard courts, and artificial grass courts.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Tunis (Doubles): Barton/Vrbensky vs Cervantes/Karol" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $100 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 22 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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