Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Matej Dodig and Guy Den Ouden in the Heilbronn, originally scheduled for June 3, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matej Dodig' if Matej Dodig advances against Guy Den Ouden. This market will resolve to 'Guy Den Ouden' if Guy Den Ouden advances against Matej Dodig. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Heilbronn: Matej Dodig vs Guy Den Ouden Match O/U 21.5 | 53% YES | 47% NO |
| Heilbronn: Matej Dodig vs Guy Den Ouden Set 1 Winner | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Heilbronn: Matej Dodig vs Guy Den Ouden Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 39% YES | 61% NO |
| Heilbronn: Matej Dodig vs Guy Den Ouden Match O/U 22.5 | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| Heilbronn: Matej Dodig vs Guy Den Ouden Match O/U 23.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Heilbronn: Matej Dodig vs Guy Den Ouden Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 75% YES | 25% NO |
| Heilbronn: Matej Dodig vs Guy Den Ouden Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Heilbronn: Matej Dodig vs Guy Den Ouden Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 26% YES | 74% NO |
Matej Dodig and Guy Den Ouden are scheduled to meet in the opening rounds of the Heilbronn tournament on 3 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a near-even split, with the crowd implying a 51% probability that Dodig advances past Den Ouden. This tight pricing suggests limited historical precedent or statistical edge between the two players at this venue and surface.
Dodig, a Croatian player, has competed primarily on the Challenger circuit with occasional ATP appearances, whilst Den Ouden, Dutch-based, operates similarly across lower-tier professional events. Direct head-to-head records between players at this level are sparse, making comparable matches difficult to isolate. Traders should examine their recent form on clay—Heilbronn is a grass-court event—and their performance trajectories over the preceding months. Shifts in seeding or late withdrawals by higher-ranked players could alter draw dynamics and affect both players' momentum heading into their fixture.
The settlement window extends to 10 June, allowing a seven-day buffer for rescheduling or completion delays. Key catalysts include official tournament draws (typically released days before play), injury announcements, or weather disruptions affecting the grass-court schedule. Recent ATP Challenger results and ATP rankings updates through May 2026 will provide the most reliable form indicators. Traders should monitor the official ATP and tournament websites for any fixture changes or player status updates as the scheduled date approaches.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Heilbronn: Matej Dodig vs Guy Den Ouden" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$210 in lifetime turnover and $26K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $210 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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