Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Baez and Maxim Mrva in the Prostejov, originally scheduled for June 5, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Maxim Mrva. This market will resolve to 'Maxim Mrva' if Maxim Mrva advances against Sebastian Baez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Maxim Mrva Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 64% YES | 37% NO |
| Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Maxim Mrva Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 65% YES | 35% NO |
| Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Maxim Mrva Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 23% YES | 78% NO |
| Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Maxim Mrva Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 37% YES | 63% NO |
| Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Maxim Mrva Match O/U 21.5 | 47% YES | 53% NO |
| Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Maxim Mrva Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Maxim Mrva Match O/U 23.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Maxim Mrva | 76% YES | 25% NO |
Sebastian Baez and Maxim Mrva are scheduled to meet in the Prostejov tournament on 5 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 57% implied probability for Baez to advance, suggesting modest confidence in the Argentine player's progression past the Czech competitor. Settlement occurs on 12 June, allowing a seven-day window for the match to conclude; cancellation, ties, or delays beyond that threshold trigger a 50-50 resolution.
Baez, ranked in the ATP's lower-middle tier, has shown inconsistent form on clay courts in recent seasons, with mixed results at Challenger-level events across Europe. Mrva, a domestic Czech player competing near his home region, typically performs better on clay but lacks the tour-level consistency of Baez. Historical precedent suggests that higher-ranked players in such matchups tend to command 55–65% implied probability, placing the current market pricing within expected bounds for a clear but not dominant favourite.
Traders should monitor tournament draw confirmations and any late withdrawals, particularly given the early morning scheduling (4:00 AM ET). Weather disruptions are material at Prostejov in early June, and surface conditions can shift significantly between the scheduled date and actual play. Recent ATP Challenger updates and either player's injury reports in the week preceding 5 June will be critical catalysts. The settlement window's strict seven-day boundary means delays—common in European clay tournaments—carry outsized resolution risk.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Prostejov: Sebastian Baez vs Maxim Mrva" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$206 in lifetime turnover and $33K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $196 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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