Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Sebastian Baez and Pablo Carreno Busta in the Valencia, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sebastian Baez' if Sebastian Baez advances against Pablo Carreno Busta. This market will resolve to 'Pablo Carreno Busta' if Pablo Carreno Busta advances against Sebastian Baez. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Valencia: Sebastian Baez vs Pablo Carreno Busta | 52% YES | 49% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Sebastian Baez and Pablo Carreno Busta are scheduled to meet at the Valencia tournament on 13 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 52% implied probability for Baez, suggesting near-parity between the two competitors. This probability emerges from real-time trading activity across the platform's liquidity pools, with the slight lean towards Baez indicating marginal confidence in the Argentine's chances.
Baez, ranked in the ATP's mid-tier, has shown inconsistent form across hard courts and clay surfaces. Carreno Busta, a former top-ten player now in his mid-thirties, retains solid baseline stability but has experienced declining match frequency in recent seasons. Historical matchups between players of comparable ranking tiers at ATP 500 events typically favour the younger competitor, though Carreno Busta's experience in high-pressure tournaments provides a counterweight. The near-even probability reflects genuine uncertainty rather than a clear technical advantage for either player.
Traders should monitor injury reports and tournament draw confirmations in the weeks preceding 13 May, as both players' participation status remains subject to late withdrawals common at this stage of the season. Recent ATP scheduling announcements and either player's performance at preceding tournaments will provide concrete form indicators. The settlement window extends to 20 May, allowing seven days for match completion; any cancellation or extended delay beyond this window triggers a 50-50 resolution, a tail risk that should factor into position sizing.
Sebastián Andrés Valencia Cisternas is a Chilean footballer who plays as a defender for Ñublense in the Chilean Primera División.
Sebastiano Valenti was a Roman Catholic prelate who served as Bishop of Terni (1520–1553).
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valencia: Sebastian Baez vs Pablo Carreno Busta" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $219 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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