Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Roberto Bautista Agut and Pedro Martinez in the Valencia, originally scheduled for May 13, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Roberto Bautista Agut' if Roberto Bautista Agut advances against Pedro Martinez. This market will resolve to 'Pedro Martinez' if Pedro Martinez advances against Roberto Bautista Agut. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Valencia: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Pedro Martinez | 57% YES | 43% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Pedro Martinez Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Pedro Martinez Set 1 Winner | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Pedro Martinez Match O/U 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Pedro Martinez Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Pedro Martinez Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Pedro Martinez Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Roberto Bautista Agut, the Spanish former world number 11, faces Pedro Martinez in the Valencia Open 500 tournament on 13 May 2026. Bautista Agut, now 37, has maintained a presence on the ATP circuit despite declining rankings, whilst Martinez, a Spanish player competing at a lower ranking tier, represents a significant underdog. The current order book on Polymarket prices Bautista Agut's advancement at 58 per cent, reflecting modest confidence in the higher-ranked player rather than overwhelming favouritism.
Historical matchups between players of disparate ranking levels at ATP 500 events show that seeding advantage typically translates to 60–70 per cent win probability, with the gap narrowing if the lower-ranked player has recent form or home-court familiarity. Both competitors are Spanish, which may reduce psychological advantage. Bautista Agut's recent performance trajectory—whether he has maintained fitness and match sharpness through spring 2026—will be the primary determinant; players in their late 30s often experience inconsistent form across consecutive tournaments.
Traders should monitor tournament draw announcements, any late withdrawals or injury disclosures, and Bautista Agut's results in warm-up events preceding Valencia. Surface conditions at the Estadio de Tenis Rafa Nadal and weather forecasts for the scheduled date carry tactical weight given the hard-court format. The settlement window closes 20 May 2026, allowing seven days beyond the scheduled match date; any postponement beyond that triggers a 50–50 resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valencia: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Pedro Martinez" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 20 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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