Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Netflix (directly or through a subsidiary) acquires control of Warner Bros.’ film and TV studios and associated streaming/pay-TV businesses (including HBO / HBO Max and related content libraries), as described in the companies’ December 5, 2025 acquisition announcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the transaction is terminated, allowed to lapse past its contractual outside date without closing, blocked by regulators, or replaced by an alternative structure in which Netflix does not acquire control of Warner Bros.’ film/TV studios and streaming business, this market will resolve to “No”.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Netflix announced on 5 December 2025 its intention to acquire Warner Bros.' film and television studios alongside HBO, HBO Max, and associated content libraries. The transaction would represent one of the largest media consolidations in recent history, combining Netflix's streaming platform with Warner Bros.' extensive production capabilities and legacy content catalogue. The market currently reflects a 0% implied probability of closure by end-2026, suggesting traders assess significant obstacles to completion within the timeframe.
Large-scale media acquisitions face formidable regulatory scrutiny, particularly in the United States and European markets. The 2022 Elon Musk–Twitter acquisition took approximately seven months from announcement to close, whilst the proposed Microsoft–Activision Blizzard deal required nearly two years of regulatory review before completion in October 2023. The Netflix–Warner Bros. transaction involves comparable or greater complexity given overlapping streaming interests, content licensing arrangements, and international regulatory considerations. Historical precedent indicates that media deals of this scale routinely extend beyond initial timelines.
Key catalysts include formal regulatory filings with the Federal Trade Commission and equivalent bodies internationally, which typically trigger multi-month review periods. Traders should monitor announcements regarding Hart-Scott-Rodino clearance, UK Competition and Markets Authority determinations, and EU merger control proceedings. The contractual outside date for deal closure—likely set 18–24 months from announcement—will become critical as 2026 progresses. Any indication of regulatory resistance, renegotiated terms, or extended review periods would likely shift market probabilities downward from current levels.
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Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Netflix close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$527K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 0%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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