Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if JUUL commercially relaunches the specified flavor in the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A relaunch is defined as JUUL making the specified flavor commercially available for purchase by consumers in the United States, whether through retail, direct-to-consumer, or other distribution channels. A limited release, test market, or sampling program will not constitute a relaunch. A flavor will be considered to be the same as the specified flavor as long as the listed flavor name is entirely included in the released flavor’s name (e.g.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Mint | 51% YES | 50% NO |
| Cucumber | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Crème Brûlée | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Mango | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| Fruit Medley | 50% YES | 50% NO |
JUUL's product portfolio has contracted significantly since its 2019 peak, when the company faced regulatory pressure and flavour restrictions in the United States. The company discontinued most flavours—including Mango, Fruit, Crème, and Cucumber—between 2019 and 2020, retaining only Menthol and Virginia Tobacco for the US market. The question of whether JUUL will reintroduce any discontinued flavours by end-2026 hinges on regulatory environment shifts and corporate strategy recalibration under its current ownership structure following the 2022 acquisition by Altria.
Historical precedent suggests flavour relaunches in the vaping sector remain uncommon once discontinued, particularly given regulatory scrutiny. The FDA's premarket tobacco product application (PMTA) process requires substantial evidence of public health benefit, making reintroduction of previously rejected flavours a lengthy undertaking. Comparable cases in the broader nicotine market show limited success with flavour comebacks, though regulatory pathways have evolved. The current 50% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects genuine uncertainty around both regulatory appetite and JUUL's strategic priorities.
Traders should monitor FDA regulatory announcements, particularly any shifts in menthol policy or PMTA guidance, alongside JUUL's quarterly business updates and patent filings indicating flavour development. Recent reporting on nicotine product regulation suggests no imminent flavour liberalisation, though longer-term policy changes remain possible. The settlement window extends through 2026, providing sufficient time for regulatory or strategic catalysts to materialise, though the burden of proof for commercial relaunch remains substantial.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which flavors will JUUL relaunch in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $404 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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