Tech

Trade: How long will Figure's F.03 Robots Run Without Failure?

Name: How long will Figure's F.03 Robots Run Without Failure? — Prediction Market
Brand: PolyGram
Availability: InStock

Opened 14 May 2026 · Settles 21 May 2026

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Figure’s official livestream at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak shows a team of fully autonomous F.03 humanoid robots sorting small packages onto a conveyor. This market will resolve according to the time measured in whole hours for which Figure's F.03 robots run without failure. Failure is defined as the beginning of a continuous two-minute period during which no package is pushed onto the conveyor, as measured by the package counter not rising for two consecutive minutes.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity: $470
Total Volume: $132
24h Volume: $132
Open Interest: $110

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Market outcomes

<8h	1% YES	99% NO
8-50h	48% YES	52% NO
50-100h	47% YES	54% NO
100-200h	48% YES	52% NO
200h+	26% YES	75% NO

Market context

Figure AI has published a livestream demonstrating its F.03 humanoid robots performing autonomous package sorting tasks on a conveyor system. The market settles based on the duration in whole hours that these robots operate without failure, where failure is defined as a two-minute period with no packages pushed onto the conveyor. If Figure officially terminates the demonstration before a specified duration is reached, that endpoint counts as failure. The current Polymarket order book reflects a 9% implied probability for extended continuous operation, suggesting market participants assess significant technical risk in sustained autonomous performance.

Comparable benchmarks for humanoid robot endurance remain limited, as most public demonstrations of autonomous systems have involved shorter operational windows or controlled environments. Tesla's Optimus prototypes and Boston Dynamics' Atlas have shown task-specific capabilities but rarely publish extended runtime data under production-like conditions. The 9% probability pricing reflects scepticism about whether Figure's F.03 can maintain reliable package handling without mechanical or software interruptions over meaningful durations, a threshold that has historically challenged robotics developers.

Traders should monitor Figure's official communications regarding demonstration schedules and any technical updates. Recent industry coverage has focused on humanoid robot commercialisation timelines, with Figure securing funding rounds in 2024 to advance manufacturing capabilities. The settlement window extends to May 2026, providing time for Figure to conduct or extend demonstrations. Key variables include whether Figure publishes updated footage, announces specific runtime targets, or provides technical specifications on system reliability and failure modes.

Wikipedia Context

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Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "How long will Figure's F.03 Robots Run Without Failure?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$132 in lifetime turnover and $470 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

Last 24 hours alone saw $132 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share: A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB: Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity: USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle: The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage: The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token: ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

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Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luU57hMhkak. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 21 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "How long will Figure's F.03 Robots Run Without Failure?"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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