Trade: Amazon 2026 capex above ___?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Amazon's Purchases of Property and Equipment (capital expenditures) for the full year of 2026, as reported in its official company earnings materials for the fourth fiscal quarter of 2026, is above the listed amount. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified period are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $10K
- Total Volume
- $318
- 24h Volume
- $93
- Open Interest
- $105
Market outcomes
| $190 billion | 76% YES | 25% NO |
| $200 billion | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| $170 billion | 85% YES | 16% NO |
| $210 billion | 34% YES | 66% NO |
| $220 billion | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| $180 billion | 86% YES | 14% NO |
Market context
Amazon's capital expenditure trajectory has become a focal point for investors assessing the company's infrastructure ambitions, particularly regarding data centre buildout for artificial intelligence and cloud services. The 76% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects expectations that 2026 capex will exceed a threshold level, with traders pricing in continued heavy investment despite potential margin pressures. The settlement mechanism ties resolution to Amazon's official Q4 2026 earnings disclosure, scheduled for early 2027, with no adjustment for subsequent revisions.
Historical context shows Amazon's capex intensity has fluctuated significantly. In 2023, the company reported approximately $35 billion in property and equipment purchases; 2024 saw elevated spending as AWS expansion accelerated. The current 76% probability suggests the market expects 2026 capex to remain elevated or increase further, reflecting confidence that management will sustain aggressive infrastructure spending despite macroeconomic headwinds. Comparable tech peers like Microsoft and Google have similarly ramped capital deployment, establishing a sector-wide pattern that anchors expectations.
Key catalysts include Amazon's quarterly earnings announcements throughout 2026, which typically provide capex guidance and commentary on data centre utilisation rates. Recent reports from financial analysts tracking AWS expansion plans and semiconductor supply chains will influence trader positioning. The timing of any major AI infrastructure announcements or strategic pivots could shift the probability materially. Traders should monitor management commentary on return on invested capital and competitive positioning, as these often precede capex guidance revisions that would inform 2026 projections.
Wikipedia Context
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Amazon (2008 TV series)Amazon is a BBC documentary television series co-produced by Endeavour Productions and Indus Films, and hosted by Bruce Parry.
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Amazon (2000 film)Amazon is a 2000 French film directed by Philippe de Broca and starring Jean Paul Belmondo.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Amazon 2026 capex above ___?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$318 in lifetime turnover and $10K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $93 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 April 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Amazon 2026 capex above ___?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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