Trade: Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) capture Khartoum (https://maps.app.goo.gl/7iTPsRRJEJf4Mrjb6) by June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The city will be considered captured if the Rapid Support forces have established military control over the "Khartoum International Airport" (مطار الخرطوم الدولي: https://maps.app.goo.gl/ZLUq7QjMi9L3CQcV7) by the resolution date. If the RSF comes into control of the city as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that grants the RSF de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $13K
- Total Volume
- $20K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30? | 5% YES | 95% NO |
Market context
The Rapid Support Forces, a paramilitary faction that emerged as a splinter from Sudan's security apparatus, have been engaged in active conflict with the Sudanese Armed Forces since April 2023. Control of Khartoum, the capital and largest city, remains contested. The RSF currently holds territory in western and central Sudan but has not established sustained military control over the capital's core infrastructure, including Khartoum International Airport, which remains under SAF influence. The 5% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the substantial military and logistical barriers to RSF capture within the next eighteen months.
Historical precedent suggests that capturing a defended capital requires either overwhelming military superiority or negotiated settlement. The RSF has demonstrated tactical capability in smaller operations but faces a numerically larger SAF with entrenched positions in Khartoum. Previous attempts at negotiated settlements in the Sudan conflict have repeatedly collapsed; the most recent ceasefire framework, brokered by the UN and regional actors, showed limited durability. The current probability distribution suggests traders assess the likelihood of either military breakthrough or credible peace negotiations as remote within this timeframe.
Traders should monitor announcements from the African Union, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE regarding mediation efforts, as these actors have attempted to broker settlements. Military developments around contested towns on Khartoum's periphery would signal shifting momentum. Any formal ceasefire agreement with explicit territorial provisions would constitute a key catalyst, as the market accepts negotiated control as qualifying for resolution.
Wikipedia Context
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Recapture of BahiaThe recapture of Bahia was a Spanish–Portuguese military expedition in 1625 to retake the city of Bahia in Brazil from the forces of the Dutch West India Company (WIC).
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Recapture of Corumbá
The Recapture of Corumbá, also known as the Second Battle of Corumbá, was a battle in the Paraguayan War, fought in the city of Corumbá in Mato Grosso do Sul, Empire of Brazil. The Imperial Brazilian Army under the command of Antônio Maria Coelho had launched an attack on the Paraguayan Army detachment occupying the city, under the command of Hermógenes Cabr
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Recapture of TarapacáThe recapture of Tarapacá or siege of Tarapacá was a confrontation between Bolivian occupation forces under the command of Colonel José María García and Peruvian militias under the command of Major Juan Buendía within the framework of the War between Peru and Bolivia between January 6 and 7, 1842. Peruvian victory allowed us to recover the province of Tarapa
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Recapture of LagunaThe Recapture of Laguna was a battle which took place in 15 November 1839 between the rebel Juliana Republic and the Empire of Brazil, during the Ragamuffin War. Laguna was the breakaway republic's capital, and the rebel defeat in this battle meant it was captured and the Juliana Republic vanquished.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 5% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $2000 if YES resolves true — a 1900% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$20K in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for sudan contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
What is the current probability for "Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?"?
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 5%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Will the RSF capture Khartoum by June 30?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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