Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Friday, May 8, 2026 is higher than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official S&P 500 Index closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on Friday, May 8, 2026 is lower than the official S&P 500 Index closing price for SPX on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 8? | 100% YES | 0% NO |
On Friday, 8 May 2026, traders are pricing the probability that the S&P 500 will close higher than its previous trading day at 100% on Polymarket's order book. This binary outcome—a single-day directional move—reflects the crowd's assessment formed through real-time order flow and market depth. The settlement hinges on official closing prices published by S&P Dow Jones Indices, with the comparison baseline being Thursday's close (or Wednesday's if Thursday is a market holiday).
Daily S&P 500 moves have historically favoured upside roughly 52–53% of the time over extended periods, though this varies considerably by market regime and proximity to earnings seasons or macroeconomic announcements. The current 100% implied probability suggests either an extreme consensus view or minimal liquidity depth at the extremes of the order book. Single-day equity index predictions are inherently volatile; comparable markets on major indices typically see probabilities cluster between 45% and 55% absent concrete overnight catalysts.
Traders monitoring this market should track economic data releases scheduled for the week of 5–8 May, including any labour market reports or inflation indicators that could shift sentiment before the Friday close. Corporate earnings announcements, Federal Reserve communications, or geopolitical developments in the preceding days would constitute material catalysts. The tightness of current pricing warrants scrutiny of actual order book depth on Polymarket to distinguish genuine conviction from thin liquidity at extreme probability levels.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 8?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$95K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for spx contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $82K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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